上海419论坛,上海龙凤419,爱上海 - Powered by Portia Eldi!

Digital agency offers £10,000 website to a UK good cause

first_img AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to LinkedInLinkedInShare to EmailEmailShare to WhatsAppWhatsAppShare to MessengerMessengerShare to MoreAddThis  27 total views,  1 views today AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to LinkedInLinkedInShare to EmailEmailShare to WhatsAppWhatsAppShare to MessengerMessengerShare to MoreAddThis Tagged with: Digital About Howard Lake Howard Lake is a digital fundraising entrepreneur. Publisher of UK Fundraising, the world’s first web resource for professional fundraisers, since 1994. Trainer and consultant in digital fundraising. Founder of Fundraising Camp and co-founder of GoodJobs.org.uk. Researching massive growth in giving. Digital marketing agency Nudge is offering a good cause in the UK a free website that it says is worth £10,000, “no strings attached, no catch.”The agency’s ‘Nudge Kindness’ campaign is designed to benefit a charity, fundraising group or support centre. The top 10 entries with the most likes will be shortlisted on 23 December and the winner will be announced on Christmas Eve.The campaign aims to inspire others to commit random acts of kindness. It came about after Nudge’s CEO assisted an elderly woman with her suitcase. She expressed her frustration at there not being enough kindness in the world.At the moment there are entries from groups in London, Bristol and Coventry. You can nominate your own organisation or another.The Nudge Kindness competition closes on 23 December 2013. Howard Lake | 19 November 2013 | News Digital agency offers £10,000 website to a UK good causelast_img read more

Odemwingie zooms into cloud nine over West Brom promotion

first_imgFormer Super Eagles ace Osaze Odemwingie is in a party mood following the return of Championship side West Brom to the English Premier League. West achieved the feat on Wednesday after playing out a 2-2 draw with Queens Park Rangers at The Hawthorns. Had the Bees won Albion would have dropped into the play-offs but Slaven Bilic’s side battled to the finish to avoid defeat thus earning the bragging right to celebrated promotion. An excited Odemwingie took to the social media to hail the Baggies on their return to the elite division” Go Baggie s @WBA” he tweeted. Recall that Odemwingie who retired from football last year spent three seasons with West Brom 2010 to 2013 scoring 30 goals in 87 appearances. The former Cardiff and Stoke City ace is however not the only one celebrating over the promotion as compatriot Semi Ajayi who was impressive in the defence happy that his hard work has paid off.Advertisement The super Eagles ace moved to West Brom from Rotherham United in a £1.3m 4-year deal last year moving straight into the Premier league afterwards looks like icing on the cake. Returnee West Brom were last relegated to the Championship at the end of the 2017–18 season, ending their eight-year Premier League stay. Read AlsoCAF, Nostalgic Lille congratulate Odemwingie at 39 Albion finished fourth in their first season back in the Championship under the management of Darren Moore, and later, caretaker manager James Shan, losing the Championship play-off semi-final against Aston Villa. Slaven Bilić took over as boss on 13 June 2019, and will now roll up his sleeves to compete again with the big boys following the triumphant return to the EPL FacebookTwitterWhatsAppEmail分享 Promoted Content6 Incredibly Strange Facts About Hurricanes10 Risky Jobs Some Women Do2020 Tattoo Trends: Here’s What You’ll See This YearCouples Who Celebrated Their Union In A Unique, Unforgettable WayNo Good Disney Role Models For Boys?Top 7 Best Car Manufacturers Of All TimeTop 10 Most Romantic Nations In The WorldWhich Country Is The Most Romantic In The World?What Is A Black Hole And Is It Dangerous For Us All?6 Extreme Facts About HurricanesWhy Do So Many Digital Assistants Have Feminine Names & Voices?The Best Cars Of All Time Loading… last_img read more

Richard Unverferth inducted posthumously to Putnam County Ag Hall of Fame

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest Richard A. Unverferth, co-founder of Unverferth Manufacturing Co., Inc., was inducted posthumously as one of three Putnam County Ag Hall of Fame honorees during the Farmers Share Breakfast Saturday, April 14, in Glandorf.The Hall of Fame recognizes outstanding contributions of individuals involved in agriculture throughout their life in Putnam County. Growing up on the family farm just outside Kalida, Ohio, Richard learned early in life that farming was ever-evolving. He and his father were noted for creative innovations that made equipment more efficient.The father-son partners began Unverferth Manufacturing Company in 1948 with the goal of helping their neighboring farmers become more efficient. That vision created a company that has grown from manufacturing simple, yet effective and innovative attachments in the early years to today’s current line of implements that increase productivity in a variety of farming tasks. Those Putnam County “neighbors” today stretch across North America and internationally.“On behalf of the entire Unverferth family and the many dedicated coworkers, past and present, we greatly appreciate the recognition of Dad’s deep commitment to agriculture, business and community involvement in Putnam County,” says Larry Unverferth, president. “Thank you to the Putnam County Hall of Fame Committee for selecting him as one of the first to receive this tribute. He would have been very humbled and appreciative of this honor.”last_img read more

Wyandot Agronomy Day Jan. 29

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest By Jason Hartschuh, CCA, Ohio State University ExtensionWyandot Agronomy day will be held on Jan. 29 from 9:00 to 3:30 at the Sycamore Community Center, 3498 St Rt 103, Sycamore Ohio 44882. Featured Presentations will include Dr. Pierce Paul presenting on Corn and Wheat Disease and Dr. Aaron Wilson on Todays Weather and Climate. Other presentations by local educators will cover all pesticide categories and fertilizer for recertification credits. The program includes lunch and will cost $50 including recertification credits if you wish to attend and do not need recertification credits the program will only cost $20. For more information and to register see the flier or call 419-562-8731Topics include:•Creating a herbicide program to match your farms needs•Managing disease in forage crops•Applying Nutrient management BMPS on your farm.last_img read more

I’m a relived man now says Kallis

first_imgSouth African all-rounder Jacques Kallis said he is now a relieved man after scoring his maiden Test double ton, and that too against India, in the first cricket Test here on Saturday.”Yes, the monkey is off the back and I no longer have to answer the question why I have not got a double hundred in Test cricket. Really it’s big relief for me,” an ecstatic Kallis said at the post-match press conference after scoring an unbeaten 201.”Yesterday, I got a call from Yohan Rupert (billionaire cricket lover friend) and he said that if I get double hundred then he will offer life membership of his exquisite golf course to me,” he said with a big smile.”I would have been happy getting this ton against any attack. But honestly speaking getting this knock against India which is the number one Test side in the world is special.This series is so vital for us and getting good score in the very first test match gives me immense pleasure,” Kallis added.After achieving the coveted feat Kallis looked up in the and he said the gesture was a tribute to his late parents.”My mom and dad must have been watching from the heavens.They would have loved getting me there. I am sure they must be feeling happy,” he said with slightly moist eyes.Kallis also praised AB de Villiers who scored a quick-fire 129 today.”He played so well. He took all the pressure off me. The main thing about his batting in recent past is consistency. He is getting big scores for us. It was our planned effort to score at quick pace and AB (de Villiers) played such an attacking innings,” the broad-shouldered right-hander said.advertisementTalking about India’s batting in the second innings, Kallis said, “They have quality players in their line-up. But I would like to insist that there is something for bowlers in this wicket.”If you keep bowling in right areas the ball is bound to do something. I believe that we have that firepower to take 10 wickets in the second innings as well.”We are well aware that there is slight chance of rain on the fourth day of the match but we cannot control weather. I would say that there is going to be some hard work for us on tomorrow. They are going to try their level best to hang in.We have to keep bowling in right areas to produce expected result,” he added.- With PTI inputslast_img read more

Luis Suarez, Lionel Messi lead Barca to 3-0 win over Eibar to keep lead

first_imgFC Barcelona’s Luis Suarez smiles during the Spanish La Liga soccer match between FC Barcelona and Eibar at the Camp Nou stadium in Barcelona, Spain, Sunday, Jan. 13, 2019. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)BARCELONA, Spain — Luis Suarez scored two goals and Lionel Messi added another to lead Barcelona to a 3-0 win over Eibar and stay five points ahead of Atletico Madrid as the Spanish league reached its midway point on Sunday.Messi scored his 400th league goal, and leads the competition this season with 17 through 19 rounds. Suarez is next with 14 goals.ADVERTISEMENT Private companies step in to help SEA Games hosting View comments Goalkeeper Asier Riesgo did well to turn back attempts by Suarez and Messi. But he was left all alone against Suarez when Sergi Roberto caught the defense out of position with a quick throw-in directly to Suarez, who shot past Riesgo from a tight angle in the 59th.Eibar is 16th after a sixth consecutive round without a win.Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next LOOK: Joyce Pring goes public with engagement to Juancho Triviño Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. MOST READ TS Kammuri to enter PAR possibly a day after SEA Games opening PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games PLAY LIST 02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City01:07Trump talks impeachment while meeting NCAA athletes02:49World-class track facilities installed at NCC for SEA Games02:11Trump awards medals to Jon Voight, Alison Krauss SEA Games hosting troubles anger Duterte Is Luis Manzano planning to propose to Jessy Mendiola? SEA Games: Biñan football stadium stands out in preparedness, completion Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way, Bucks win Mike Budenholzer’s return SEA Games: Biñan football stadium stands out in preparedness, completion LATEST STORIES LOOK: Joyce Pring goes public with engagement to Juancho Triviño Suarez opened the scoring at Camp Nou in the 19th minute. The Uruguay striker exchanged two quick passes with Philippe Coutinho to break down Eibar’s backline before he skillfully directed a shot into the far corner of the net while falling down.“I always do things the difficult way,” Suarez said. “But as a striker you have to have all different kinds of tricks.”FEATURED STORIESSPORTSPrivate companies step in to help SEA Games hostingSPORTSUrgent reply from Philippine ‍football chiefSPORTSWin or don’t eat: the Philippines’ poverty-driven, world-beating pool starsMessi doubled the advantage after Sergi Enrich had Eibar’s only scoring chance with a header that went wide.Coutinho also played a role in Messi’s goal in the 53rd, passing the ball to Suarez, who then found Messi, who cut around a defender and fired in a low, left-footed strike.last_img read more

The Save Ruined Relief Pitching The Goose Egg Can Fix It

Mike Henneman3066782.071.620.2 1978Rollie Fingers661991Paul Assenmacher47 Todd Jones319Billy Wagner421 Randy Myers347Kent Tekulve517 Lee Smith478Hoyt Wilhelm641 YEARNAMEGOOSE EGGSBROKEN EGGSCONV. %REPLACEMENT-LEVEL CONV. %GWAR Rollie Fingers339Lindy McDaniel507 1988John Franco56591.873.85.7 Career leaderboards for saves and goose eggs, 1930-2016 1964Dick Radatz712004Brad Lidge53 Mariano Rivera61410885.0%70.5%54.6 Dave Smith3477881.673.019.2 Troy Percival358Sparky Lyle520 Trevor Hoffman601Rollie Fingers663 Bruce Sutter55713480.672.230.3 John Wetteland330Mike Marshall489 2004Joe Nathan41295.371.15.4 Miller and Familia’s league-leading total would have been paltry by Gossage’s standards, however. In addition to being the lifetime leader in goose eggs, he’s also the single-season leader, having recorded 82 goose eggs (almost as many as Miller and Familia combined) in 1975, when he threw 141.2 (!) innings in relief for the Chicago White Sox.The top firemen of Gossage’s day routinely had 60 goose eggs or more in a season, with their totals sometimes reaching into the 70s or — in the case of Gossage in 1975 and John Hiller in 1974 — the 80s.Just one pitcher since 2000 — the Angels’ Scot Shields in 2005 — has had as many as 60 goose eggs in a season, however. These days, it’s rare for a pitcher to record even 50 goose eggs. League-leading goose-egg totals have plummeted even as saves have risen. The turning point seems to have been 1990, when Bobby Thigpen and Dennis Eckersley both beat the single-season saves record while rarely working more than one inning at a time. In the 1970s and 1980s, the average league leader in saves threw 112 innings over 69 appearances. Since 1990, by contrast, the average saves leader has also appeared in 69 games but has thrown only 71 innings. Huston Street324Francisco Rodriguez430 No runs (earned or unearned) are charged to the pitcher in the inning and no inherited runners score while the pitcher is in the game; andThe pitcher either:Records three outs (one inning pitched), orRecords at least one out, and the number of outs recorded plus the number of inherited runners totals at least three. Lindy McDaniel50713079.672.922.3 1980Doug Corbett681087.271.86.3 1987Tim Burke42295.570.75.7 1979Sid Monge651996Troy Percival47 Goose Gossage310Roberto Hernandez404 Joe Nathan3445386.671.930.4 Tom Henke311Stu Miller405 Jose Mesa321Todd Jones425 Dennis Eckersley3528181.372.020.8 1921-1940Lively Ball Era0.2873.8% Bullpens are still built around the saveWhile I come to bury the save, let me first sing some of its praises. The statistic, invented by the sportswriter Jerome Holtzman and officially adopted by Major League Baseball in 1969, came into the world with noble intentions. Relief pitchers were becoming more commonplace — the share of starts that ended in complete games would decline from 40 percent in 1950 to 22 percent in 1970. But these pitchers’ contributions were largely unheralded by fans, Holtzman correctly noted, because they rarely earned wins or losses and ERA did not reveal much about which relievers had been used in clutch situations.Furthermore, some of the intuitions behind the save rule are correct. Modern statistics such as leverage index find that late-inning situations when a team holds a narrow lead are indeed quite important. For instance, an at-bat5With the bases empty and nobody out. Also, throughout this article I’m averaging the leverage index for such an at-bat in the top of the inning and the bottom of the inning, which have slightly different leverage-index values. in the ninth inning when the pitcher’s team leads by one run has a leverage index of 3.3. That means it has more than three times as much impact on the game’s outcome as an average at-bat.The problem is that there’s a fuzzy relationship between the most valuable relief situations and the ones that the save rewards. Take a look at the following chart, which shows the leverage index in different situations based on the inning and the game score:6As in the previous example, these reflect the leverage index with nobody out and no one on base. And they average the values between the top and the bottom of the inning. Armando Benitez3317381.970.723.6 The typical modern closer is really just a ninth-inning specialist. In 2016, the average closer threw 66 innings, and 56 of them came in the ninth inning. This included 11 innings in games where his team led by three runs in the ninth — a save situation, but not a high-leverage one. Conversely, it included just six innings in tie games in the ninth, which is not a save situation but is one of the highest-leverage situations you can find.Again, this is pretty much how you’d use your bullpen if the goal was to maximize the number of saves for your closer (instead of the number of wins for your team). Managers seem so conditioned by the “only use your closer in the ninth inning with a lead” heuristic that they often use their closers in the ninth inning when their team leads by more than three runs, which is a not a save situation8Unless the tying run is at bat or on deck. and is even more of a waste of the closer’s supposed talent.9And before you ask: Yes, the closer is usually the most talented relief pitcher on his team. Other than the Indians and Miller, few teams are deliberately using their best reliever in a fireman-type role, although an increasing number are using co-closers or closers by committee. Baseball teams have supposedly reached a state of statistical enlightenment — but their closer usage is every bit as stubborn as NFL teams’ too-frequent refusal to go for it on 4th down. Francisco Rodriguez4308783.271.930.3 Goose opportunities are increasing You’ll notice that the rules are more forgiving to pitchers who enter the game with runners on base, since these cases can have much higher leverage indexes than situations where the bases are empty. For instance, if a pitcher enters the game with two runners on and records a single out without allowing a run, he’ll earn a goose egg.But the rule is strict about what it means by a scoreless inning. An unearned run cooks a goose egg, just as an earned run does. (The eggs are delicate.) And a pitcher doesn’t get a goose egg if a run scores while he’s in the game, even if the run was charged to another pitcher.Overall, these rules can yield high goose-egg totals among many types of relievers, not just closers. That’s clear when you look at the goose egg leaderboard for 2016, for example. The Indians’ Miller11Miller also pitched for the Yankees in 2016; his 42 goose eggs represent his combined total between both clubs. and the Mets’ Jeurys Familia tied for the major league lead with 42 goose eggs last year, but Familia was used as a typical modern closer (and led the majors with 51 saves) while Miller often entered the game in the seventh or eighth inning. Mets setup man Addison Reed tied for fourth in the majors with 39 goose eggs last season, meanwhile, even though he had just one save. 1946-1962Postwar Era0.5375.9 1998Trevor Hoffman51591.172.75.4 Source: Retrosheet Dennis Eckersley390Trevor Hoffman580 1970Lindy McDaniel70988.674.25.9 Addison Reed77.21.974-214395 Tyler Thornburg67.02.158-5138397 1984Willie Hernandez65790.373.16.4 Plus select seasons since 1921.Source: Retrosheet Sam Dyson70.12.433-2385365 Lee Smith58915679.171.628.9 Single-season goose-egg leaderboard, 1930-2016 1993-2009Juiced Offense Era0.8473.8 1983Bob Stanley701780.568.85.3 1977Bruce Sutter621086.171.15.6 Roberto Hernandez326Ron Perranoski444 1969Ron Perranoski791385.972.26.6 PITCHERINNINGS PITCHEDERAW-LSAVESBLOWN SAVESGOOSE EGGSBROKEN EGGS 1982Bill Caudill651086.772.45.6 Sparky Lyle52013080.073.621.6 Plus select seasons since 1921Sources: Retrosheet, baseball-reference.com Roberto Hernandez40411178.469.823.3 Kent Tekulve51713479.472.523.4 1973Mike Marshall791996Trevor Hoffman55 Jeurys Familia77.22.553-4515427 1979Kent Tekulve711384.571.75.6 1977Sparky Lyle662007Heath Bell48 Kenley Jansen68.21.833-2476346 1974John Hiller802005Scot Shields60 1950Jim Konstanty691997Trevor Hoffman50 Plus select seasons since 1921Sources: Retrosheet, baseball-reference.com 1980Doug Corbett682011Tyler Clippard50 Jeff Reardon52013080.072.525.4 Dave Righetti3729280.272.219.2 Rollie Fingers66316480.274.325.3 1977Rich Gossage741993Jeff Montgomery54 2008Brad Lidge340100.069.55.4 1980Bruce Sutter661992Lee Smith47 YEARPITCHERGOOSE EGGSYEARPITCHERGOOSE EGGS Goose Gossage67714682.373.139.4 THROUGH 1989SINCE 1990 Jonathan Papelbon368Tug McGraw521 1984Willie Hernandez652004Tom Gordon47 1979Aurelio Lopez54788.570.65.7 Imagine that one evening, Pitcher A throws a scoreless eighth inning in a game where his team leads by one run — a situation that has a leverage index of 2.4 — before being pulled for his team’s closer. Meanwhile, in another ballgame on the other side of town, Pitcher B enters the game in the ninth inning when his team holds a three-run lead — a leverage index of just 0.9 — and gives up two runs but eventually records the final out. Pitcher A’s performance was quite valuable. Pitcher B’s was not — in fact, it was kind of crappy. But Pitcher B gets a save for his troubles whereas Pitcher A doesn’t. It doesn’t make a lot of sense.There are other problems with the save, also. It doesn’t give a pitcher any additional reward for pitching multiple innings — even though two clutch innings pitched in relief are roughly twice as valuable as one. And a pitcher doesn’t get a save for pitching in a tie game, even though it’s one of the highest-leverage situations.I know I’m not breaking much news here: Stat geeks have been complaining about the save for years. But don’t modern, post-“Moneyball” teams know better than this? Aren’t they using their best relievers in the highest-leverage situations, whether or not they yield a save? In a word: no. (In 11 words: Mostly not, except maybe for the Cleveland Indians and Andrew Miller.) The next table reflects how teams used their closers (as defined by closermonkey.com, a site that tracks bullpen usage obsessively) over the course of 2016,7The closer could change over the course of the season; the stats are based on who closermonkey.com listed as the team’s closer on the day the game occurred as measured by the number of innings the closer pitched in different situations: Todd Jones42510180.869.730.2 Defining a goose eggIf managers were thinking about goose eggs rather than saves, they’d find plenty of better ways to use their best relievers. So let’s define a goose egg, officially. Just as for the save rule, the formal definition is a bit more complicated than the quick-and-dirty version I described above. But here goes:A relief pitcher10Starting pitchers, who have plenty of their own statistics, aren’t eligible for goose eggs. records a goose egg for each inning in which:It’s the seventh inning or later;At the time the pitcher faces his first batter of the inning:His team leads by no more than two runs, orThe score is tied, orThe tying run is on base or at bat 1974Tom Murphy661993Jim Gott48 Broken eggs and GWAR(goose wins above replacement)Having only learned about the goose egg a few moments ago, you might still be a little suspicious of it. Sure, closers are pitching fewer innings than they used to and getting fewer goose eggs. But perhaps they’re pitching more efficiently and providing more overall value as a result? It goes without saying that pitchers like Miller and Zach Britton are really good at their jobs.To properly value relievers, we need a companion statistic called the broken egg, which is to a goose egg as a blown save is to a save. (I wanted to call this companion stat a “blown goose,” but my editors decided that vaguely dirty jokes were the hill they wanted to die on.) We’ll define it as follows:A relief pitcher records a broken egg for each inning in which:He could have gotten a goose egg if he’d recorded enough outs;At least one earned run is charged to the pitcher; andThe pitcher does not close out the win for his team. In other words, you get a broken egg when you could have gotten a goose egg but are charged with an earned run instead, with an exemption if you get the last out of the game.12This is to deal with the specific situation where the pitcher enters the ninth inning with a two-run lead, gives up one run, and finishes the game with his team earning a one-run victory. I’m not sure a pitcher should get a lot of credit for that performance, but I don’t know that he should get much blame for it either. Therefore, it’s a “meh,” rather than a goose egg or a broken egg. Note that this leaves some situations that result in neither goose eggs nor broken eggs, which we’ll say are a “meh.” For instance, if a run scores while you’re in the game but it isn’t charged to you, that’s neither a goose egg or a broken egg; it’s a meh. I’ll speak no more of mehs in this article because they’re pretty boring; when I use the phrase “goose opportunity,” it means a goose egg or a broken egg.There are usually about three goose eggs for every broken egg, meaning that relievers convert about 75 percent of their goose opportunities. And unlike saves and blown saves, which are highly punitive to guys who aren’t closers,13Last year, for example, the White Sox’ Nate Jones — an excellent middle reliever who converted 83 percent of his goose opportunities — led the American League with nine blown saves, whereas he had only three saves. The problem is that you can only get a save if you finish the game, whereas blown saves aren’t restricted to the final inning. the goose system gives middle relievers a fair shake. For instance, Mark Eichhorn — a good-but-not-great middle reliever for the Blue Jays and other teams in the 1980s and ’90s — converted 76 percent of his lifetime goose opportunities, about the same rate as an average closer.Goose eggs and broken eggs — when taken together — also do a good job of replicating more complicated statistics. For instance, there’s a 0.78 correlation14Among pitchers since 1974 with at least 50 relief innings pitched in a season. between a simple linear combination of these stats15Namely, goose eggs minus (3 x broken eggs). This is based on the ratio of goose eggs to broken eggs; also, when running a regression of goose eggs and broken eggs on WPA, a broken egg hurts a pitcher’s WPA about as much as three goose eggs help it. and the highly sophisticated statistic win probability added (WPA), which is arguably the best way to value relief pitchers. WPA is a lot of work to calculate, however, so goose eggs and broken eggs get you to mostly the same place but are relatively simple counting statistics. Saves and blown saves,16When combined in the same way — that is, saves minus (3 × blown saves). on the other hand, have a much noisier relationship with WPA (a correlation of 0.50). Robb Nen3146084.071.224.8 1965Stu Miller791990Bobby Thigpen56 David Robertson62.13.475-3377367 1941-1945World War II0.2177.2 2000Keith Foulke42393.367.76.0 PITCHERSAVESPITCHERGOOSE EGGS 1963Dick Radatz731186.973.95.7 So perhaps you can argue that modern closer usage at least helps the best relievers to preserve their longevity, even if it almost certainly doesn’t maximize their value over the course of a given season. Then again, Rivera and Hoffman and Billy Wagner might just have been freaks; there’s been a ton of turnover in the closer ranks lately. Of the top 10 pitchers in saves in 2011,22These were Jose Valverde, John Axford, Craig Kimbrel, J.J. Putz, Rivera, Heath Bell, Drew Storen, Joel Hanrahan, Francisco Cordero and Brandon League. only three23Craig Kimbrel, John Axford and Drew Storen were still in the league in 2016, and only one (Craig Kimbrel) was still regularly working as a closer. As long as teams are burning through relief pitchers, they might as well try to get more value out of their best ones.So how should an ace reliever be used?Managers have a lot of room for improvement if they forget about saves and use goose eggs as a bullpen guide. A bare-bones workload for a goose-optimized closer would look something like this:Pitch in all goose situations, including ties, in the ninth inning. For a typical team, that works out to about 40 or 45 innings over the course of the season.Pitch in goose situations in the eighth inning when his team leads by one run exactly, with the plan of usually also pitching the 9th when the game remains in a goose situation. This will add another 15 innings or so.Pitch in any goose situations in extra innings, up to a maximum of two total innings pitched for the game. Keep in mind that this will often be impossible because the closer will already have been used earlier in the game. Still, this should amount to another five or 10 innings in a typical season.That will work out to a total of around 65 innings pitched for the season — about the same number that closers throw now — over roughly 50 appearances. But those innings would come with a super-high leverage index of about 2.5. And the pitcher would go from around 40 or 45 goose opportunities in a season to 60 or 65 instead, potentially generating nearly 50 percent more value as a result.For an older or injury-prone closer (say, the Los Angeles Angels’ Huston Street), that might be basically all the work they could handle. But there are lot of teams that might want to replicate MiIler’s success, and there are younger, fitter pitchers who could build on this minimal workload. Depending on the day, they could enter in the eighth inning in tie games, for instance. And they could come into the game with runners on, even in the seventh inning; it can be worth using your best reliever to get your team out of a jam in these cases even if you have to remove him from the game later. A pitcher picking up some of these situations might wind up throwing 85 or 90 innings — and a roughly equal number of goose opportunities — over the course of a season in which he makes 60 or 65 appearances. Those pitchers could have roughly double the value that modern closers do. It’s really not that radical a shift from how pitchers are used now.But it doesn’t have to stop there. Modern teams have about 150 goose opportunities in a season. One day, they’ll find a guy with the right genetics and the right mentality to throw two or three innings every second or third day — someone who really could approach Gossage’s usage pattern — and when that happens, Gossage’s 82-goose-egg single-season record might come under threat. It would be a high bar to clear. But it would be an accomplishment worth chasing down, whereas a save record usually isn’t.You can download detailed data on goose eggs and broken eggs for all pitchers since 1930 here. 2010-2016Strikeout Era0.9276.5 1996Mariano Rivera54690.068.76.6 1988Doug Jones51591.171.65.7 1978Gene Garber52788.170.55.4 1963Dick Radatz731996Mariano Rivera54 1965Eddie Fisher661991Mitch Williams48 If managers want to squeeze every ounce of potential and talent out of their top relievers — maybe even doubling their value — it’s time to give up the save and embrace the goose. Francisco Rodriguez430Mariano Rivera614 The best relief-pitching season of all time, according to this metric, belongs to Stu Miller, who had 79 goose eggs and just 7 broken eggs for the 1965 Baltimore Orioles. Miller’s traditional numbers looked pretty good that year — he went 14-7 with a 1.89 ERA and 24 saves in 119.1 innings pitched, finishing seventh in American League MVP balloting. His goose stats make it clear that he was almost unhittable in high-leverage situations, however.21Miller allowed just a .478 OPS against in high-leverage situations that season. He contributed 7.5 wins above replacement according to GWAR, which is a Cy Young Award-caliber performance.After Miller’s 1965 comes Gossage’s 1975, and then there’s a year from Rivera. But Rivera’s best season according to GWAR was not 2004, when he had a league-leading and career-high 53 saves, but 1996, when he was used as a setup man to John Wetteland and had just 5 saves in 107.2 innings of 2.09 ERA relief. Rivera was promoted to closer the next year, but his value declined as the Yankees held him to 71.2 innings despite the success he’d had in the fireman role.Only two of the top 40 relief seasons have come in the past 10 years. You can be literally almost perfect — as Britton and his 0.54 ERA were last year — and yet still not provide as much value as pitchers like Gossage did because you didn’t have enough volume in high-leverage situations.The lifetime GWAR leaderboard is somewhat more forgiving to modern closers. Rivera tops the list, with Hoffman second and Gossage third: Doug Jones303Darold Knowles400 Randy Myers4049281.572.223.9 Kelvin Herrera72.02.752-6123359 NAMEGOOSE EGGSBROKEN EGGSCONV. %REPLACEMENT-LEVEL CONV. %GWAR But if you take your statistics with an extra helping of rigor — and if you’ve read this far, you probably do — there are a few more things to consider. It’d be nice to adjust performance for a pitcher’s park and league; it was a lot easier to convert goose opportunities at Dodger Stadium in the low-offense 1960s than at Coors Field during the juiced-offense era. We’d also like to know how valuable a late-inning reliever is, which will require some notion of what the replacement level is for the goose statistic. Considering that a lot of high-performing closers — including Rivera — were once middling starters, is the job really that challenging?To answer those questions, we need to create another new stat: goose wins above replacement (GWAR). To do that, I went back to the history books. Over time, the number of goose opportunities per game has increased (as teams pull their starting pitchers earlier) while the success rate for converting them has varied. The offense-friendly era from 1993 through 2009 was a rough one for relief pitchers, who converted a middling 73.8 percent of their goose opportunities. The best relievers from this era, such as Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, might be slightly underrated without considering this context. But since 2010, which has seen a revival of pitching, the goose-egg conversion rate has improved to 76.5 percent. 1982Bill Caudill652003Eric Gagne47 Single-season goose wins above replacement (GWAR) leaderboard, 1930-2016 1993John Wetteland56690.371.86.0 Zach Britton67.00.542-1470401 Familia, Miller tied for goose-egg lead in 2016 Francisco Cordero329Gene Garber468 Billy Wagner4218084.069.837.0 Jeff Montgomery3608980.270.821.8 1977Sparky Lyle66889.273.36.1 1999Billy Wagner44491.768.05.9 1979Bruce Sutter631185.170.95.5 2016Zach Britton40197.672.65.3 1979Kent Tekulve711998Trevor Hoffman51 1965Bob Lee721998Robb Nen53 Andrew Miller74.11.4510-1122427 1969Wayne Granger59986.871.05.6 1973John Hiller59789.472.25.9 Tug McGraw52110183.873.034.9 Stu Miller4058183.373.724.3 1963-1972Neo-Deadball Era0.7177.5 1982Greg Minton63888.774.15.4 Plus select seasons since 1921Source: Retrosheet 2008Francisco Rodriguez47 John Franco424Lee Smith589 ERA and W-L record cover relief appearances onlySources: FanGraphs, Retrosheet 1979Joe Sambito52689.771.85.4 1975Goose Gossage821992Doug Jones67 Mariano Rivera652Goose Gossage677 Career goose wins above replacement (GWAR) leaderboard, 1930-2016 2002Eric Gagne46393.972.55.5 1980Dan Quisenberry651998Jeff Shaw47 1983Bob Stanley702011Jonny Venters51 Dan Quisenberry3808781.472.322.1 Hall of Fame relief pitcher Richard “Goose” Gossage isn’t the biggest fan of the “Moneyball” revolution. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we don’t think his expletive-laced tirades about nerds ruining baseball have always found their target the way his fastballs once did. But on one point, he’s absolutely right: The save is a stupid [bleep]ing statistic.Gossage recently lashed out against modern closers — including all-time saves leader Mariano Rivera — arguing that they aren’t used in the right situations and that cheaply earned saves exaggerate closers’ value compared to the pitchers of his day. “I would like to see these guys come into more jams, into tighter situations and finish the game. … In the seventh, eighth or ninth innings. I don’t think they’re utilizing these guys to the maximum efficiency and benefit to your ballclub,” Gossage said. “This is not a knock against Mo [Rivera],” he continued later.1Fact-check: Yes, it was. “[But] I’d like to know how many of Mo’s saves are of one inning with a three-run lead. If everybody in that [bleep]ing bullpen can’t save a three-run lead for one inning, they shouldn’t even be in the big leagues.”Gossage is right about pretty much all of that. A pitcher probably shouldn’t get much credit for handling just the final inning when his team has a three-run lead. Moreover, the top relief pitchers today are less valuable than they were in Gossage’s heyday in the 1970s and ’80s. In large part, that’s because managers are trying to maximize the number of saves for their closer, as opposed to the number of wins for their team. They’re managing to a stat and playing worse baseball as a result.But there’s a solution. Building on the work of Baseball Prospectus’s Russell Carleton,2In a 2013 article for Baseball Prospectus, Carleton came up with a stat called the “new save” that’s similar to a goose egg. I’ve designed a statistic and named it the goose egg to honor (or troll) Gossage. The basic idea — aside from some additional provisions designed to handle inherited runners, which we’ll detail later — is that a pitcher gets a goose egg for a clutch, scoreless relief inning. Specifically, he gets credit for throwing a scoreless inning when it’s the seventh inning or later and the game is tied or his team leads by no more than two runs. A pitcher can get more than one goose egg in a game, so pitching three clutch scoreless innings counts three times as much as one inning does.The goose egg properly rewards the contributions made by Gossage and other “firemen” of his era, who regularly threw two or three innings at a time, often came into the game with runners on base, and routinely pitched in tie games and not just in save situations.3Twenty-seven percent of Gossage’s career opposing plate appearances came in tie games, while just 17 percent of Rivera’s did. I’ve calculated goose eggs for all seasons since 19304Through the end of the 2016 season — there isn’t data for 2017 just yet, but check back in over the course of the season. — plus select seasons since 1921 — based on play-by-play data from Retrosheet. While Gossage ranks only 23rd in major league history with 310 saves, he’s the lifetime leader in goose eggs (677) — ahead of Rivera and every other modern closer. Billy Wagner422John Franco589 Bob Wickman3449278.970.219.7 1965Stu Miller79791.9%75.0%7.5 Roberto Osuna74.02.684-3366354 Troy Percival3546484.769.433.3 1983Dan Quisenberry601184.569.85.4 1974Mike Marshall661997Jeff Shaw48 Rick Aguilera318Jesse Orosco416 1967Ted Abernathy51394.472.56.2 Jeff Montgomery304Randy Myers404 YEARSERAAVERAGE GOOSE OPPORTUNITIES PER GAMECONVERSION RATE Dave Giusti3055485.073.421.5 1996Troy Percival47394.069.06.5 Robb Nen314Doug Jones410 2014Tony Watson47 John Wetteland3076283.269.925.6 1969Tug McGraw46492.071.65.3 1972Tug McGraw65691.575.95.8 1975Goose Gossage821188.274.36.7 2004Eric Gagne46590.269.85.4 Jeff Reardon367Jeff Reardon520 Keith Foulke2636280.969.319.7 Nate Jones70.22.295-339388 Huston Street3256383.872.223.3 Joe Nathan377Bruce Sutter557 Tom Henke3578181.571.423.1 Ron Perranoski4449981.873.722.8 John Franco58913281.772.036.3 Jose Valverde2524584.871.620.5 To determine the goose replacement level, I looked at the performance of pitchers since 199617More precisely, from 1996 through 2015; my source, Baseball-Reference.com, did not have detailed contract information available for 2016. who made no more than 150 percent of the league’s minimum salary18I also included pitchers whose salary information was missing on Baseball-Reference.com. These are usually obscure players who are making at or near the league-minimum salary. and who were acquired in free agency, on waivers, or through the Rule 5 draft. Essentially, these are the guys who are available to any major league team at any time for next to nothing — the literal definition of replacement-level players. But they actually weren’t too bad in goose situations. They converted 71.5 percent of their goose opportunities during this period, as compared to 74.7 percent for the league as a whole. To put that in more familiar terms, these relievers had a 3.91 ERA, weighted by their number of goose situations, as compared to a 3.64 weighted ERA for the league overall.Therefore, a team shouldn’t be spending a lot for average relief pitching — the average relievers just aren’t that much better than the replacement-level guys. Pick up a few failed starters off the waiver wire, tell them to limit their repertoire to their two best pitches, and test them out in Triple-A or in low-leverage situations. You won’t necessarily have the next Gossage or Miller — those guys are scarcer and more valuable commodities — but you’ll probably find a couple of pretty good late-inning relievers without paying a lot to do it.A complete formula for GWAR, which adjusts for a pitcher’s park as well as his league and converts performance in goose situations to wins,19The conversion rate is based on maximizing the fit to WPA. can be found in the footnotes.20The formula for GWAR is as follows:GWAR = .52 * (GOPP) * (pitcher’s GPCT – replacement-level GPCT)In the formula, GOPP is goose opportunities (goose eggs + broken eggs) and GPCT is goose percentage (goose eggs divided by goose opportunities).Replacement-level GPCT, which adjusts for park and league effects, is calculated as follows:Replacement-level GPCT = league GPCT + .105 – .0014 * PPF… where league GPCT is the leaguewide goose percentage (that is, for the American League or the National League, rather than for the major leagues combined) and PPF is the Baseball-Reference.com pitching park factor for the pitcher’s home stadium.The best relievers of all time, according to gooseEven with all this extra work, however, we come to basically the same conclusion that we did before: Most of the best relief seasons came a long time ago, and from pitchers who followed Gossage’s usage pattern rather than Rivera’s. 1970Lindy McDaniel702000Danny Graves51 TRADITIONAL STATSGOOSE STATS Jonathan Papelbon3615287.471.733.7 Trevor Hoffman58011383.771.643.7 1993Jeff Montgomery54788.569.56.0 Todd Worrell3508081.472.220.7 1955Ray Narleski44295.773.35.4 Hoyt Wilhelm64114681.473.831.3 1972Tug McGraw651996Roberto Hernandez47 2004Mariano Rivera47 Craig Kimbrel2273487.073.019.0 2004Mariano Rivera47492.271.85.4 1969Ron Perranoski791993John Wetteland56 1973-1992Balanced Era0.7976.3 read more

Mateo Kovacic can imagine staying at Chelsea

first_imgMateo Kovacic is enjoying life at Chelsea and can see himself sticking around, but accepts it’s Real Madrid who have the final sayThe 24-year-old midfielder is currently on a season-long loan deal at Chelsea after struggling for regular opportunities at the Santiago Bernabeu.Kovacic has since established himself as a key member of the Chelsea team with 22 appearances made in all competitions this term.And the Croatia international is very pleased with how things have turned out for him at Stamford Bridge.“I think it [a loan switch] was the most important thing I did for now in my career,” Kovacic told Sky Sports.“It was a step I wanted a lot, I wanted to come here. I say thank you to my previous club, to Chelsea as well, who wanted me a lot. I am enjoying it and I like it a lot here.“For now, I am happy here. The city is amazing, the club is one of the best in the world, and my team-mates are great.”As for a permanent switch to Chelsea, Kovacic revealed he’s open to the idea but conceded it’s Real who will make the last call on his future.Jose Mourinho is sold on Lampard succeeding at Chelsea Tomás Pavel Ibarra Meda – September 14, 2019 Jose Mourinho wanted to give his two cents on Frank Lampard’s odds as the new Chelsea FC manager, he thinks he will succeed.There really…“I need to respect my previous club, Real Madrid. I can imagine myself staying here, but I have a contract I need to respect, and that is what I will do,” added Kovacic.“For now, my business is to give my best every day.”Meanwhile, Real have been strongly linked with one of Kovacic’s new teammates in Eden Hazard – who has asked him about life at Los Blancos.“For me, he is an incredible player,” said Kovacic on Hazard.“I did not know he was that good and he can easily be one of the two or three best players in the world.“He asked me how it was there [at Real] but we are looking forward to having a great season together, to be fully concentrated on Chelsea.“He is focused a lot on doing great things with Chelsea.”Chelsea will face Watford today in the Premier League with kick-off set for 20:30 (CET).last_img read more

Two dead two injured after plane crashes into Clairemont home

first_imgTwo dead, two injured after plane crashes into Clairemont home December 9, 2017 , Plane crashes into #Clairemont house. @sdfd on scene. #SanDiego pic.twitter.com/rRpOKMVZZH— Central Commander ?? (@DeniseScatena) December 10, 2017Four people were in the plane at the time. Two were found dead at the scene and two others were transferred to UCSD Medical Center with non-life-threatening burn injuries, Fennessy said.Nobody of the home residents were home at the time of the crash, however a pet dog was home and killed from the crash, according to SDFD Deputy Chief Steve Ricci.The identities of the victims have not yet been released, pending notification of next of kin. Updated: 3:28 PM 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek  . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave SettingsSAN DIEGO (KUSI) — Two people are dead and two more suffered burn injuries after a small plane crashed into a Clairemont home Saturday night.The crash happened about 4:30 p.m. near the intersection of Chandler Drive and Mt. Abernathy Avenue in Clairemont, Sgt. Jordan Wells of the San Diego Police Department said.The single engine plane took off from Montgomery Field where it experienced an engine failure soon after takeoff, according to San Diego Fire-Rescue Department Chief Brian Fennessy. They attempted to land at a field near Lafayette Elementary school, but the high speeds at landing caused them to crash through a home.The plane and the house caught fire as a result of the crash. Firefighters were able to put out the flames by approximately 5 p.m., Fennessy said. center_img Posted: December 9, 2017 This is a developing story. Clairemont plane crash Categories: Local San Diego News FacebookTwitterlast_img read more

Vogue Launches Content Archive for 1575 Annual Subscription