About the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say Arsenal boss Emery delighted with Bellerin performance for Carabao Cup winby Paul Vegasa month agoSend to a friendShare the loveArsenal boss Unai Emery was delighted with Hector Bellerin’s performance for their Carabao Cup win over Nottingham Forest.It was an emotional night for Bellerin as he returned to the first team after more than nine months out injured.”I think Hector’s attitude is a very big attitude to help us,” Emery said. “When he was injured he was still a big mentality in the dressing room helping us.”He assisted for [Joe] Willock to score and also to have different options in the squad and first XI is good. We are going to play a lot of matches and tonight was his first 15 minutes [with us], which is really important. “He wanted to play 90 and yesterday he told me he’s ready and wanted to play, but we decided to give him less minutes than 90. He played with the under-23s on Friday and also they are the first matches for him. We need to do it progressively and the doctor said to us that we are going to do it like that.”I think no [he can’t play 90 minutes against Manchester United next]. Maybe in his mind yes, but we need to listen to the doctor and the doctor wants to do it progressively. Really tonight is the first day and the first minutes, and we are going to maybe share some minutes with the under-23s.”It depends how he’s feeling, but in his mind he’s feeling very well and I think the first minutes tonight were amazing for him. We are going to use him with Ainsley [Maitland-Niles] and Calum Chambers to help us in this position. The most important things about Hector are his attitude and experience. He’s wishing to help us.”
About the authorAnsser SadiqShare the loveHave your say De Gea slams Man Utd: We must improve everywhereby Ansser Sadiq18 days agoSend to a friendShare the loveManchester United goalkeeper David De Gea believes his side must improve in all areas to avoid further pain in the Premier League.United suffered a humiliating 1-0 defeat away to Newcastle United on Sunday. A Matty Longstaff long range strike was enough to give the Magpies all three points.The result left United only two points above the relegation zone after eight league games. De Gea was furious with his side as he spoke with reporters after the game.”We didn’t create any proper chances,” De Gea fumed on Sky Sports. “We defended well. The team needs to step up.”We have some big injuries but that’s no excuse. We are Manchester United, we need to keep training hard, fighting and winning games.”When asked where United can improve, De Gea said: “Everything. A lot of things to improve. I don’t know what to say.”Keep trying, fighting, improving every day. It’s a hard moment for us.”[This is] the most difficult time since I’ve been here. I don’t know why, what is happening. Sorry to the fans. We will keep fighting.”Come on, we conceded a goal from a corner. That cannot happen. It’s unacceptable.”
Twitter/@thatboycam1LSU’s roster is littered with impressive athletes every season, and they will be adding another one in 2016 athlete Cameron Lewis. The four-star plays quarterback and safety for Wossman High School, and shined in a recent scrimmage against Peabody. Lewis threw for two touchdowns, and added one each on the ground and as a receiver, but none was more impressive than this wild 35 yard scramble.Recap of yesterday I make it look easy pic.twitter.com/pKNpUD21xt— Cameron Lewis (@thatboycam1) August 24, 2015Lewis is expected to play safety at the next level, but based on this, he could make one heck of a punt returner as well.[TigerDroppings.com]
REGINA – The Saskatchewan government says it has applied for intervener status in National Energy Board hearings on the Trans Mountain pipeline project.Justice Minister Don Morgan says the province argues the interprovincial pipeline has already been approved and shouldn’t be held up by a municipality.The city of Burnaby, B.C., hasn’t issued necessary permits to allow Kinder Morgan Canada Ltd. (TSX:KML) to expand its pipeline from the Edmonton area to a tank farm and port in Burnaby.Morgan says Saskatchewan is disappointed the city is deliberately slowing down an important project for an industry that is just starting to recover from sluggish oil prices.He says Saskatchewan energy companies need to get their product to the coast and all Canadians — including Burnaby residents — benefit from a thriving energy sector.Kinder Morgan wants the National Energy Board to clear the way for work on the Burnaby portion of the pipeline expansion.It already has energy board and federal approvals, but the company says delays in permits and regulatory approvals mean the project could be almost nine months behind schedule.“Saskatchewan has consistently taken the position that once an interprovincial pipeline has been approved by the federal government, provinces and municipalities should not be able to interfere,” Morgan said in a statement Friday. “Our government will continue to advocate for an expansion of pipeline capacity across Canada.”
OTTAWA – The Trudeau government tabled a budget Tuesday that will use billions of dollars worth of fresh fiscal runway for new investments, a decision that leaves Ottawa with no timetable for balanced books anywhere on its horizon.Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s budget will channel the extra dollars into new spending that he’s banking on to lift Canada’s long-term growth.In releasing his third fiscal plan, Morneau sought to reassure Canadians the new commitments would be carried out in a responsible way, while arguing his earlier investments had already produced encouraging economic results.“The economy is doing well — remarkably well,” Morneau said in prepared remarks of his budget speech.“With a strong and growing economy in place, we believe that now is the right time to focus on the deeper challenges that hold our economy — and our people — back.”Compared to the fall, the government says it has $19.8 billion in additional cash to play with over the next six years — an average of $3.3 billion a year in extra fiscal elbow room.That money was generated by a number of sources, including the stronger economy, revenues from tax changes for private corporations, lower-than-expected departmental spending and nearly $5 billion in re-profiled infrastructure commitments over the next two years alone.But due to the new investments, the government will continue posting annual deficits at roughly the same pace.Morneau’s plan to raise long-term growth is counting on waves of new measures designed to advance fundamental science, nurture the innovative economy and topple many of the barriers preventing women from fully participating in the workforce.Indeed, one of the predominant themes of the budget is to bring more women into the workforce, which many say will bring big economic benefits.But it remains to be seen whether the additional investments will be enough to give future generations the economic boost the Liberals have promised.Some say Ottawa has spent too much, because the government may have to eventually address another economic downturn or potential fallout from the trade and competitiveness uncertainty connected to the United States.Others argue Morneau should be spending far more if he truly wants to increase growth. For example, some said the budget’s lack of a comprehensive child-care plan means Ottawa hasn’t gone far enough to ensure the economy reaps the benefits of higher female participation in the workforce.The government is projecting deficits roughly in line with its October projections. The new outlook now shows an $18.1-billion shortfall for 2018-19 that’s expected to gradually shrink to $12.3 billion in 2022-23, including annual $3-billion cushions to offset risks.During the 2015 campaign, the Liberals had pledged to keep annual deficits at no more than $10 billion and to balance the books by 2019.On Tuesday, Morneau reiterated that he’s instead focused on another fiscal “anchor” of lowering the net debt-to-GDP ratio — a measure of Ottawa’s debt burden — each year. The budget predicts the ratio to decline each year over the outlook.The lack of target date for a balanced budget drew swift criticism Tuesday — from some economists and from the opposition Conservatives. There are concerns over Ottawa’s deficit plan at a time of economic expansion and warnings it could find itself far deeper down the deficit hole in the event of a recession.Other major worries are linked to the unknowns surrounding the outcome of the NAFTA renegotiation and the potentially greater fallout from the U.S. plan to slash corporate tax changes.Many have urged Morneau to respond by cutting business taxes in Canada — but he has refused to act until the U.S. government irons out the details of its tax overhaul. The budget acknowledged the uncertainty and said more analysis was necessary.The government will do its homework on the U.S. tax plan before taking any steps to address it, Morneau told a news conference before the budget was introduced.“It’s not news to me that business is asking for lower tax rates — I was in business, that’s a pretty common refrain,” Morneau said.Dennis Darby, president and CEO of the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters, said the budget was a “missed opportunity” because it lacked reforms needed to improve competitiveness and encourage investment. He added that changes were missing long before the U.S. tax changes emerged and they’ve only exacerbated the situation.Jean-Francois Perrault, chief economist for Scotiabank, said the government’s plans to focus new spending in the budget on important, long-term goals to address inequality also raise the question of whether it still has room to navigate rough economic waters in the future.“If you do things that reduce inequality, depending on how you do them, there is a growth payoff,” Perrault said.For example, he said the budget introduces lots of smaller steps towards raising workforce participation among women — but it lacks a broader child-care plan. For Perrault, child care is the single most important measure that encourages women to enter the workforce.The Liberals provided money in last year’s budget for child care, but many called it insufficient.Economist Armine Yalnizyan agreed that the budget lacks the “secret sauce” of child care.She said in other jurisdictions government-subsidized child care has proven it pays for itself by enabling more women to enter the workforce, thus raising revenues.Yalnizyan also argues that in its effort to keep the debt-to-GDP on a downward track, the Liberals are actually spending less over the outlook when the promised investments are compared to revenues. To explain it, she noted how the government moved forward nearly $5 billion in past infrastructure commitments to the next two years.She said as long as there’s no unexpected downturn, the government appears to keeping its fiscal powder dry this year, so it can put more into the 2019 budget — which will be tabled months before the next election.“But that does not square with their focus on saying we need to plan for the long-run growth of the economy,” Yalnizyan said.Follow @AndyBlatchford on TwitterNote to readers: This is a corrected story. An earlier version misspelled Jean-Francois Perrault’s surname.
NEW YORK, N.Y. – Shares of the digital file storage company Dropbox soared Friday in their stock market debut.The stock rose $7.48, or 35.6 per cent, to close Friday at $28.48 in its first day of trading on Nasdaq. It had climbed as high as $31.60 during the day.The San Francisco company offered about 26.8 million shares of stock at $21 apiece, while selling shareholders were offering about 9.2 million shares. It had expected to price the shares in a range of $18 to $20.The company, founded 11 years ago, boasts about 500 million users. It provides services for backing up documents, photos and video. It competes with smaller rival Box Inc., which went public two years ago, as well as technology behemoths Google, Microsoft and Amazon.
CALGARY, AB – With increased demand, improved refineries, improving transportation capacity and mandatory productions cuts, prices should improve in 2019 says Deloitte’s Resource Evaluation and Advisory (REA) group.In its latest report, Deloitte says these factors should begin to reduce the current oversupply of Canadian oil and help with WTI prices that were present in the final quarter of 2018.“The severe imbalance between Canada’s production and its capacity to export that oil caused Canadian oil price benchmarks to collapse over the past few months,” says Andrew Botterill, Partner, REA group. “Heavy oil differentials were as high as US$45 per barrel in mid-November while light oil differentials reached as much as US$35 per barrel, although they did begin to drop back slightly toward the end of the year as refineries in the U.S Midwest returned to more normal utilization rates for Canadian oil.” Botterill noted storage stockpile volumes in Alberta rose to approximately 35 million barrels in 2018 yet the Canadian supply remains an issue. With the Alberta Government imposing mandatory production cuts which take place in January, this should reduce production by 325,000 barrels a day until the excess storage volumes dissipate, after which the cuts will drop to 95,000 barrels a day for the rest of 2019.Deloitte expects this will decrease discrepancies for Canadian oil price benchmarks and increase provincial royalty revenues in Alberta and in Saskatchewan, where there are no mandatory production cuts but where crude prices will also rise because of the reduction in oversupply.Canadian oil prices should also strengthen in 2019 because of improved export capacity as a result of the Alberta government’s plan to purchase additional rail cars to transport crude oil and the extra rail cars should increase exports by 120,000 barrels a day by 2020. With expanded capacity of Enbridge’s Line 3 Pipeline will add approximately 370,000 barrels a day of export capacity, an increase of about nine percent. The pipeline transports a variety of Canadian crude oil to the United States notes Deloitte.“Increased demand for Canadian oil from Alberta’s Sturgeon refinery and from U.S. Gulf Coast refineries looking to replace some of their heavy crude supplies that used to come from Mexico and Venezuela is another reason we expect the price differential with WTI to continue narrowing in 2019 and beyond,” says Botterill. “At this point, we are forecasting a price of US$58per barrel for WTI this year and C$50 per barrel for WCS”.Botterill says Deloitte expects Canadian natural gas prices to continue to trail behind the Henry Hub benchmark in 2019 despite some recent gains. No near term growth is expected for Canadian natural gas production because of high U.S. production rates and the possibility that short-term demand in Alberta could slow as oil sands producers – whose extraction efforts account for about 40 percent of natural gas consumption in the province – scale back their operations due to the mandatory production cuts. Several natural gas producers continue to take advantage of any available price diversification opportunities, however, including shipping volumes to East Coast markets where prices are higher.“We expect low AECO prices to continue for several years given the current situation,” says Botterill. “Our current forecast for AECO is C$1.75 per Mcf in 2019 while Henry Hub should be US$3 per Mcf.” For Deloitte’s December 31, 2018 oil and gas price forecast; CLICK HERE
For more information about the event, click here. FORT ST. JOHN, B.C. – Facebook is buzzing after Westcoast Amusements posted they are coming back to Fort St. John this May.The travelling carnival hasn’t been in Fort St. John for a number of years due to problems with finding a proper location to set up. The Facebook Event says the carnival will be in town on May 24 to 26 on the lot across from the Totem Mall.Last spring the Mall put up a temporary fence around the property was being used as a parking lot, and people had been dumping fluids there as well.
Mike Henneman3066782.071.620.2 1978Rollie Fingers661991Paul Assenmacher47 Todd Jones319Billy Wagner421 Randy Myers347Kent Tekulve517 Lee Smith478Hoyt Wilhelm641 YEARNAMEGOOSE EGGSBROKEN EGGSCONV. %REPLACEMENT-LEVEL CONV. %GWAR Rollie Fingers339Lindy McDaniel507 1988John Franco56591.873.85.7 Career leaderboards for saves and goose eggs, 1930-2016 1964Dick Radatz712004Brad Lidge53 Mariano Rivera61410885.0%70.5%54.6 Dave Smith3477881.673.019.2 Troy Percival358Sparky Lyle520 Trevor Hoffman601Rollie Fingers663 Bruce Sutter55713480.672.230.3 John Wetteland330Mike Marshall489 2004Joe Nathan41295.371.15.4 Miller and Familia’s league-leading total would have been paltry by Gossage’s standards, however. In addition to being the lifetime leader in goose eggs, he’s also the single-season leader, having recorded 82 goose eggs (almost as many as Miller and Familia combined) in 1975, when he threw 141.2 (!) innings in relief for the Chicago White Sox.The top firemen of Gossage’s day routinely had 60 goose eggs or more in a season, with their totals sometimes reaching into the 70s or — in the case of Gossage in 1975 and John Hiller in 1974 — the 80s.Just one pitcher since 2000 — the Angels’ Scot Shields in 2005 — has had as many as 60 goose eggs in a season, however. These days, it’s rare for a pitcher to record even 50 goose eggs. League-leading goose-egg totals have plummeted even as saves have risen. The turning point seems to have been 1990, when Bobby Thigpen and Dennis Eckersley both beat the single-season saves record while rarely working more than one inning at a time. In the 1970s and 1980s, the average league leader in saves threw 112 innings over 69 appearances. Since 1990, by contrast, the average saves leader has also appeared in 69 games but has thrown only 71 innings. Huston Street324Francisco Rodriguez430 No runs (earned or unearned) are charged to the pitcher in the inning and no inherited runners score while the pitcher is in the game; andThe pitcher either:Records three outs (one inning pitched), orRecords at least one out, and the number of outs recorded plus the number of inherited runners totals at least three. Lindy McDaniel50713079.672.922.3 1980Doug Corbett681087.271.86.3 1987Tim Burke42295.570.75.7 1979Sid Monge651996Troy Percival47 Goose Gossage310Roberto Hernandez404 Joe Nathan3445386.671.930.4 Tom Henke311Stu Miller405 Jose Mesa321Todd Jones425 Dennis Eckersley3528181.372.020.8 1921-1940Lively Ball Era0.2873.8% Bullpens are still built around the saveWhile I come to bury the save, let me first sing some of its praises. The statistic, invented by the sportswriter Jerome Holtzman and officially adopted by Major League Baseball in 1969, came into the world with noble intentions. Relief pitchers were becoming more commonplace — the share of starts that ended in complete games would decline from 40 percent in 1950 to 22 percent in 1970. But these pitchers’ contributions were largely unheralded by fans, Holtzman correctly noted, because they rarely earned wins or losses and ERA did not reveal much about which relievers had been used in clutch situations.Furthermore, some of the intuitions behind the save rule are correct. Modern statistics such as leverage index find that late-inning situations when a team holds a narrow lead are indeed quite important. For instance, an at-bat5With the bases empty and nobody out. Also, throughout this article I’m averaging the leverage index for such an at-bat in the top of the inning and the bottom of the inning, which have slightly different leverage-index values. in the ninth inning when the pitcher’s team leads by one run has a leverage index of 3.3. That means it has more than three times as much impact on the game’s outcome as an average at-bat.The problem is that there’s a fuzzy relationship between the most valuable relief situations and the ones that the save rewards. Take a look at the following chart, which shows the leverage index in different situations based on the inning and the game score:6As in the previous example, these reflect the leverage index with nobody out and no one on base. And they average the values between the top and the bottom of the inning. Armando Benitez3317381.970.723.6 The typical modern closer is really just a ninth-inning specialist. In 2016, the average closer threw 66 innings, and 56 of them came in the ninth inning. This included 11 innings in games where his team led by three runs in the ninth — a save situation, but not a high-leverage one. Conversely, it included just six innings in tie games in the ninth, which is not a save situation but is one of the highest-leverage situations you can find.Again, this is pretty much how you’d use your bullpen if the goal was to maximize the number of saves for your closer (instead of the number of wins for your team). Managers seem so conditioned by the “only use your closer in the ninth inning with a lead” heuristic that they often use their closers in the ninth inning when their team leads by more than three runs, which is a not a save situation8Unless the tying run is at bat or on deck. and is even more of a waste of the closer’s supposed talent.9And before you ask: Yes, the closer is usually the most talented relief pitcher on his team. Other than the Indians and Miller, few teams are deliberately using their best reliever in a fireman-type role, although an increasing number are using co-closers or closers by committee. Baseball teams have supposedly reached a state of statistical enlightenment — but their closer usage is every bit as stubborn as NFL teams’ too-frequent refusal to go for it on 4th down. Francisco Rodriguez4308783.271.930.3 Goose opportunities are increasing You’ll notice that the rules are more forgiving to pitchers who enter the game with runners on base, since these cases can have much higher leverage indexes than situations where the bases are empty. For instance, if a pitcher enters the game with two runners on and records a single out without allowing a run, he’ll earn a goose egg.But the rule is strict about what it means by a scoreless inning. An unearned run cooks a goose egg, just as an earned run does. (The eggs are delicate.) And a pitcher doesn’t get a goose egg if a run scores while he’s in the game, even if the run was charged to another pitcher.Overall, these rules can yield high goose-egg totals among many types of relievers, not just closers. That’s clear when you look at the goose egg leaderboard for 2016, for example. The Indians’ Miller11Miller also pitched for the Yankees in 2016; his 42 goose eggs represent his combined total between both clubs. and the Mets’ Jeurys Familia tied for the major league lead with 42 goose eggs last year, but Familia was used as a typical modern closer (and led the majors with 51 saves) while Miller often entered the game in the seventh or eighth inning. Mets setup man Addison Reed tied for fourth in the majors with 39 goose eggs last season, meanwhile, even though he had just one save. 1946-1962Postwar Era0.5375.9 1998Trevor Hoffman515220.127.116.11 Source: Retrosheet Dennis Eckersley390Trevor Hoffman580 1970Lindy McDaniel70988.674.25.9 Addison Reed77.21.974-214395 Tyler Thornburg67.02.158-5138397 1984Willie Hernandez65790.373.16.4 Plus select seasons since 1921.Source: Retrosheet Sam Dyson70.12.433-2385365 Lee Smith58915679.171.628.9 Single-season goose-egg leaderboard, 1930-2016 1993-2009Juiced Offense Era0.8473.8 1983Bob Stanley701780.568.85.3 1977Bruce Sutter621086.171.15.6 Roberto Hernandez326Ron Perranoski444 1969Ron Perranoski791385.972.26.6 PITCHERINNINGS PITCHEDERAW-LSAVESBLOWN SAVESGOOSE EGGSBROKEN EGGS 1982Bill Caudill651086.772.45.6 Sparky Lyle52013080.073.621.6 Plus select seasons since 1921Sources: Retrosheet, baseball-reference.com Roberto Hernandez40411178.469.823.3 Kent Tekulve51713479.472.523.4 1973Mike Marshall791996Trevor Hoffman55 Jeurys Familia77.22.553-4515427 1979Kent Tekulve711384.571.75.6 1977Sparky Lyle662007Heath Bell48 Kenley Jansen68.21.833-2476346 1974John Hiller802005Scot Shields60 1950Jim Konstanty691997Trevor Hoffman50 Plus select seasons since 1921Sources: Retrosheet, baseball-reference.com 1980Doug Corbett682011Tyler Clippard50 Jeff Reardon52013080.072.525.4 Dave Righetti3729280.272.219.2 Rollie Fingers66316480.274.325.3 1977Rich Gossage741993Jeff Montgomery54 2008Brad Lidge340100.069.55.4 1980Bruce Sutter661992Lee Smith47 YEARPITCHERGOOSE EGGSYEARPITCHERGOOSE EGGS Goose Gossage67714682.373.139.4 THROUGH 1989SINCE 1990 Jonathan Papelbon368Tug McGraw521 1984Willie Hernandez652004Tom Gordon47 1979Aurelio Lopez54788.570.65.7 Imagine that one evening, Pitcher A throws a scoreless eighth inning in a game where his team leads by one run — a situation that has a leverage index of 2.4 — before being pulled for his team’s closer. Meanwhile, in another ballgame on the other side of town, Pitcher B enters the game in the ninth inning when his team holds a three-run lead — a leverage index of just 0.9 — and gives up two runs but eventually records the final out. Pitcher A’s performance was quite valuable. Pitcher B’s was not — in fact, it was kind of crappy. But Pitcher B gets a save for his troubles whereas Pitcher A doesn’t. It doesn’t make a lot of sense.There are other problems with the save, also. It doesn’t give a pitcher any additional reward for pitching multiple innings — even though two clutch innings pitched in relief are roughly twice as valuable as one. And a pitcher doesn’t get a save for pitching in a tie game, even though it’s one of the highest-leverage situations.I know I’m not breaking much news here: Stat geeks have been complaining about the save for years. But don’t modern, post-“Moneyball” teams know better than this? Aren’t they using their best relievers in the highest-leverage situations, whether or not they yield a save? In a word: no. (In 11 words: Mostly not, except maybe for the Cleveland Indians and Andrew Miller.) The next table reflects how teams used their closers (as defined by closermonkey.com, a site that tracks bullpen usage obsessively) over the course of 2016,7The closer could change over the course of the season; the stats are based on who closermonkey.com listed as the team’s closer on the day the game occurred as measured by the number of innings the closer pitched in different situations: Todd Jones42510180.869.730.2 Defining a goose eggIf managers were thinking about goose eggs rather than saves, they’d find plenty of better ways to use their best relievers. So let’s define a goose egg, officially. Just as for the save rule, the formal definition is a bit more complicated than the quick-and-dirty version I described above. But here goes:A relief pitcher10Starting pitchers, who have plenty of their own statistics, aren’t eligible for goose eggs. records a goose egg for each inning in which:It’s the seventh inning or later;At the time the pitcher faces his first batter of the inning:His team leads by no more than two runs, orThe score is tied, orThe tying run is on base or at bat 1974Tom Murphy661993Jim Gott48 Broken eggs and GWAR(goose wins above replacement)Having only learned about the goose egg a few moments ago, you might still be a little suspicious of it. Sure, closers are pitching fewer innings than they used to and getting fewer goose eggs. But perhaps they’re pitching more efficiently and providing more overall value as a result? It goes without saying that pitchers like Miller and Zach Britton are really good at their jobs.To properly value relievers, we need a companion statistic called the broken egg, which is to a goose egg as a blown save is to a save. (I wanted to call this companion stat a “blown goose,” but my editors decided that vaguely dirty jokes were the hill they wanted to die on.) We’ll define it as follows:A relief pitcher records a broken egg for each inning in which:He could have gotten a goose egg if he’d recorded enough outs;At least one earned run is charged to the pitcher; andThe pitcher does not close out the win for his team. In other words, you get a broken egg when you could have gotten a goose egg but are charged with an earned run instead, with an exemption if you get the last out of the game.12This is to deal with the specific situation where the pitcher enters the ninth inning with a two-run lead, gives up one run, and finishes the game with his team earning a one-run victory. I’m not sure a pitcher should get a lot of credit for that performance, but I don’t know that he should get much blame for it either. Therefore, it’s a “meh,” rather than a goose egg or a broken egg. Note that this leaves some situations that result in neither goose eggs nor broken eggs, which we’ll say are a “meh.” For instance, if a run scores while you’re in the game but it isn’t charged to you, that’s neither a goose egg or a broken egg; it’s a meh. I’ll speak no more of mehs in this article because they’re pretty boring; when I use the phrase “goose opportunity,” it means a goose egg or a broken egg.There are usually about three goose eggs for every broken egg, meaning that relievers convert about 75 percent of their goose opportunities. And unlike saves and blown saves, which are highly punitive to guys who aren’t closers,13Last year, for example, the White Sox’ Nate Jones — an excellent middle reliever who converted 83 percent of his goose opportunities — led the American League with nine blown saves, whereas he had only three saves. The problem is that you can only get a save if you finish the game, whereas blown saves aren’t restricted to the final inning. the goose system gives middle relievers a fair shake. For instance, Mark Eichhorn — a good-but-not-great middle reliever for the Blue Jays and other teams in the 1980s and ’90s — converted 76 percent of his lifetime goose opportunities, about the same rate as an average closer.Goose eggs and broken eggs — when taken together — also do a good job of replicating more complicated statistics. For instance, there’s a 0.78 correlation14Among pitchers since 1974 with at least 50 relief innings pitched in a season. between a simple linear combination of these stats15Namely, goose eggs minus (3 x broken eggs). This is based on the ratio of goose eggs to broken eggs; also, when running a regression of goose eggs and broken eggs on WPA, a broken egg hurts a pitcher’s WPA about as much as three goose eggs help it. and the highly sophisticated statistic win probability added (WPA), which is arguably the best way to value relief pitchers. WPA is a lot of work to calculate, however, so goose eggs and broken eggs get you to mostly the same place but are relatively simple counting statistics. Saves and blown saves,16When combined in the same way — that is, saves minus (3 × blown saves). on the other hand, have a much noisier relationship with WPA (a correlation of 0.50). Robb Nen3146084.071.224.8 1965Stu Miller791990Bobby Thigpen56 David Robertson62.13.475-3377367 1941-1945World War II0.2177.2 2000Keith Foulke42393.367.76.0 PITCHERSAVESPITCHERGOOSE EGGS 1963Dick Radatz731186.973.95.7 So perhaps you can argue that modern closer usage at least helps the best relievers to preserve their longevity, even if it almost certainly doesn’t maximize their value over the course of a given season. Then again, Rivera and Hoffman and Billy Wagner might just have been freaks; there’s been a ton of turnover in the closer ranks lately. Of the top 10 pitchers in saves in 2011,22These were Jose Valverde, John Axford, Craig Kimbrel, J.J. Putz, Rivera, Heath Bell, Drew Storen, Joel Hanrahan, Francisco Cordero and Brandon League. only three23Craig Kimbrel, John Axford and Drew Storen were still in the league in 2016, and only one (Craig Kimbrel) was still regularly working as a closer. As long as teams are burning through relief pitchers, they might as well try to get more value out of their best ones.So how should an ace reliever be used?Managers have a lot of room for improvement if they forget about saves and use goose eggs as a bullpen guide. A bare-bones workload for a goose-optimized closer would look something like this:Pitch in all goose situations, including ties, in the ninth inning. For a typical team, that works out to about 40 or 45 innings over the course of the season.Pitch in goose situations in the eighth inning when his team leads by one run exactly, with the plan of usually also pitching the 9th when the game remains in a goose situation. This will add another 15 innings or so.Pitch in any goose situations in extra innings, up to a maximum of two total innings pitched for the game. Keep in mind that this will often be impossible because the closer will already have been used earlier in the game. Still, this should amount to another five or 10 innings in a typical season.That will work out to a total of around 65 innings pitched for the season — about the same number that closers throw now — over roughly 50 appearances. But those innings would come with a super-high leverage index of about 2.5. And the pitcher would go from around 40 or 45 goose opportunities in a season to 60 or 65 instead, potentially generating nearly 50 percent more value as a result.For an older or injury-prone closer (say, the Los Angeles Angels’ Huston Street), that might be basically all the work they could handle. But there are lot of teams that might want to replicate MiIler’s success, and there are younger, fitter pitchers who could build on this minimal workload. Depending on the day, they could enter in the eighth inning in tie games, for instance. And they could come into the game with runners on, even in the seventh inning; it can be worth using your best reliever to get your team out of a jam in these cases even if you have to remove him from the game later. A pitcher picking up some of these situations might wind up throwing 85 or 90 innings — and a roughly equal number of goose opportunities — over the course of a season in which he makes 60 or 65 appearances. Those pitchers could have roughly double the value that modern closers do. It’s really not that radical a shift from how pitchers are used now.But it doesn’t have to stop there. Modern teams have about 150 goose opportunities in a season. One day, they’ll find a guy with the right genetics and the right mentality to throw two or three innings every second or third day — someone who really could approach Gossage’s usage pattern — and when that happens, Gossage’s 82-goose-egg single-season record might come under threat. It would be a high bar to clear. But it would be an accomplishment worth chasing down, whereas a save record usually isn’t.You can download detailed data on goose eggs and broken eggs for all pitchers since 1930 here. 2010-2016Strikeout Era0.9276.5 1996Mariano Rivera54690.068.76.6 1988Doug Jones51518.104.22.168 1978Gene Garber52722.214.171.124 1963Dick Radatz731996Mariano Rivera54 1965Eddie Fisher661991Mitch Williams48 If managers want to squeeze every ounce of potential and talent out of their top relievers — maybe even doubling their value — it’s time to give up the save and embrace the goose. Francisco Rodriguez430Mariano Rivera614 The best relief-pitching season of all time, according to this metric, belongs to Stu Miller, who had 79 goose eggs and just 7 broken eggs for the 1965 Baltimore Orioles. Miller’s traditional numbers looked pretty good that year — he went 14-7 with a 1.89 ERA and 24 saves in 119.1 innings pitched, finishing seventh in American League MVP balloting. His goose stats make it clear that he was almost unhittable in high-leverage situations, however.21Miller allowed just a .478 OPS against in high-leverage situations that season. He contributed 7.5 wins above replacement according to GWAR, which is a Cy Young Award-caliber performance.After Miller’s 1965 comes Gossage’s 1975, and then there’s a year from Rivera. But Rivera’s best season according to GWAR was not 2004, when he had a league-leading and career-high 53 saves, but 1996, when he was used as a setup man to John Wetteland and had just 5 saves in 107.2 innings of 2.09 ERA relief. Rivera was promoted to closer the next year, but his value declined as the Yankees held him to 71.2 innings despite the success he’d had in the fireman role.Only two of the top 40 relief seasons have come in the past 10 years. You can be literally almost perfect — as Britton and his 0.54 ERA were last year — and yet still not provide as much value as pitchers like Gossage did because you didn’t have enough volume in high-leverage situations.The lifetime GWAR leaderboard is somewhat more forgiving to modern closers. Rivera tops the list, with Hoffman second and Gossage third: Doug Jones303Darold Knowles400 Randy Myers4049281.572.223.9 Kelvin Herrera72.02.752-6123359 NAMEGOOSE EGGSBROKEN EGGSCONV. %REPLACEMENT-LEVEL CONV. %GWAR But if you take your statistics with an extra helping of rigor — and if you’ve read this far, you probably do — there are a few more things to consider. It’d be nice to adjust performance for a pitcher’s park and league; it was a lot easier to convert goose opportunities at Dodger Stadium in the low-offense 1960s than at Coors Field during the juiced-offense era. We’d also like to know how valuable a late-inning reliever is, which will require some notion of what the replacement level is for the goose statistic. Considering that a lot of high-performing closers — including Rivera — were once middling starters, is the job really that challenging?To answer those questions, we need to create another new stat: goose wins above replacement (GWAR). To do that, I went back to the history books. Over time, the number of goose opportunities per game has increased (as teams pull their starting pitchers earlier) while the success rate for converting them has varied. The offense-friendly era from 1993 through 2009 was a rough one for relief pitchers, who converted a middling 73.8 percent of their goose opportunities. The best relievers from this era, such as Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, might be slightly underrated without considering this context. But since 2010, which has seen a revival of pitching, the goose-egg conversion rate has improved to 76.5 percent. 1982Bill Caudill652003Eric Gagne47 Single-season goose wins above replacement (GWAR) leaderboard, 1930-2016 1993John Wetteland56690.371.86.0 Zach Britton67.00.542-1470401 Familia, Miller tied for goose-egg lead in 2016 Francisco Cordero329Gene Garber468 Billy Wagner4218084.069.837.0 Jeff Montgomery3608980.270.821.8 1977Sparky Lyle66889.273.36.1 1999Billy Wagner44491.768.05.9 1979Bruce Sutter631126.96.36.199 2016Zach Britton40197.672.65.3 1979Kent Tekulve711998Trevor Hoffman51 1965Bob Lee721998Robb Nen53 Andrew Miller74.11.4510-1122427 1969Wayne Granger59986.871.05.6 1973John Hiller59789.472.25.9 Tug McGraw52110183.873.034.9 Stu Miller4058183.373.724.3 1963-1972Neo-Deadball Era0.7177.5 1982Greg Minton63888.774.15.4 Plus select seasons since 1921Source: Retrosheet 2008Francisco Rodriguez47 John Franco424Lee Smith589 ERA and W-L record cover relief appearances onlySources: FanGraphs, Retrosheet 1979Joe Sambito52689.771.85.4 1975Goose Gossage821992Doug Jones67 Mariano Rivera652Goose Gossage677 Career goose wins above replacement (GWAR) leaderboard, 1930-2016 2002Eric Gagne46393.972.55.5 1980Dan Quisenberry651998Jeff Shaw47 1983Bob Stanley702011Jonny Venters51 Dan Quisenberry3808781.472.322.1 Hall of Fame relief pitcher Richard “Goose” Gossage isn’t the biggest fan of the “Moneyball” revolution. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we don’t think his expletive-laced tirades about nerds ruining baseball have always found their target the way his fastballs once did. But on one point, he’s absolutely right: The save is a stupid [bleep]ing statistic.Gossage recently lashed out against modern closers — including all-time saves leader Mariano Rivera — arguing that they aren’t used in the right situations and that cheaply earned saves exaggerate closers’ value compared to the pitchers of his day. “I would like to see these guys come into more jams, into tighter situations and finish the game. … In the seventh, eighth or ninth innings. I don’t think they’re utilizing these guys to the maximum efficiency and benefit to your ballclub,” Gossage said. “This is not a knock against Mo [Rivera],” he continued later.1Fact-check: Yes, it was. “[But] I’d like to know how many of Mo’s saves are of one inning with a three-run lead. If everybody in that [bleep]ing bullpen can’t save a three-run lead for one inning, they shouldn’t even be in the big leagues.”Gossage is right about pretty much all of that. A pitcher probably shouldn’t get much credit for handling just the final inning when his team has a three-run lead. Moreover, the top relief pitchers today are less valuable than they were in Gossage’s heyday in the 1970s and ’80s. In large part, that’s because managers are trying to maximize the number of saves for their closer, as opposed to the number of wins for their team. They’re managing to a stat and playing worse baseball as a result.But there’s a solution. Building on the work of Baseball Prospectus’s Russell Carleton,2In a 2013 article for Baseball Prospectus, Carleton came up with a stat called the “new save” that’s similar to a goose egg. I’ve designed a statistic and named it the goose egg to honor (or troll) Gossage. The basic idea — aside from some additional provisions designed to handle inherited runners, which we’ll detail later — is that a pitcher gets a goose egg for a clutch, scoreless relief inning. Specifically, he gets credit for throwing a scoreless inning when it’s the seventh inning or later and the game is tied or his team leads by no more than two runs. A pitcher can get more than one goose egg in a game, so pitching three clutch scoreless innings counts three times as much as one inning does.The goose egg properly rewards the contributions made by Gossage and other “firemen” of his era, who regularly threw two or three innings at a time, often came into the game with runners on base, and routinely pitched in tie games and not just in save situations.3Twenty-seven percent of Gossage’s career opposing plate appearances came in tie games, while just 17 percent of Rivera’s did. I’ve calculated goose eggs for all seasons since 19304Through the end of the 2016 season — there isn’t data for 2017 just yet, but check back in over the course of the season. — plus select seasons since 1921 — based on play-by-play data from Retrosheet. While Gossage ranks only 23rd in major league history with 310 saves, he’s the lifetime leader in goose eggs (677) — ahead of Rivera and every other modern closer. Billy Wagner422John Franco589 Bob Wickman3449278.970.219.7 1965Stu Miller79791.9%75.0%7.5 Roberto Osuna74.02.684-3366354 Troy Percival3546484.769.433.3 1983Dan Quisenberry601184.569.85.4 1974Mike Marshall661997Jeff Shaw48 Rick Aguilera318Jesse Orosco416 1967Ted Abernathy51394.472.56.2 Jeff Montgomery304Randy Myers404 YEARSERAAVERAGE GOOSE OPPORTUNITIES PER GAMECONVERSION RATE Dave Giusti3055485.073.421.5 1996Troy Percival47394.069.06.5 Robb Nen314Doug Jones410 2014Tony Watson47 John Wetteland3076283.269.925.6 1969Tug McGraw46492.071.65.3 1972Tug McGraw65691.575.95.8 1975Goose Gossage821188.274.36.7 2004Eric Gagne46590.269.85.4 Jeff Reardon367Jeff Reardon520 Keith Foulke2636280.969.319.7 Nate Jones70.22.295-339388 Huston Street3256383.872.223.3 Joe Nathan377Bruce Sutter557 Tom Henke3578181.571.423.1 Ron Perranoski4449981.873.722.8 John Franco58913281.772.036.3 Jose Valverde2524584.871.620.5 To determine the goose replacement level, I looked at the performance of pitchers since 199617More precisely, from 1996 through 2015; my source, Baseball-Reference.com, did not have detailed contract information available for 2016. who made no more than 150 percent of the league’s minimum salary18I also included pitchers whose salary information was missing on Baseball-Reference.com. These are usually obscure players who are making at or near the league-minimum salary. and who were acquired in free agency, on waivers, or through the Rule 5 draft. Essentially, these are the guys who are available to any major league team at any time for next to nothing — the literal definition of replacement-level players. But they actually weren’t too bad in goose situations. They converted 71.5 percent of their goose opportunities during this period, as compared to 74.7 percent for the league as a whole. To put that in more familiar terms, these relievers had a 3.91 ERA, weighted by their number of goose situations, as compared to a 3.64 weighted ERA for the league overall.Therefore, a team shouldn’t be spending a lot for average relief pitching — the average relievers just aren’t that much better than the replacement-level guys. Pick up a few failed starters off the waiver wire, tell them to limit their repertoire to their two best pitches, and test them out in Triple-A or in low-leverage situations. You won’t necessarily have the next Gossage or Miller — those guys are scarcer and more valuable commodities — but you’ll probably find a couple of pretty good late-inning relievers without paying a lot to do it.A complete formula for GWAR, which adjusts for a pitcher’s park as well as his league and converts performance in goose situations to wins,19The conversion rate is based on maximizing the fit to WPA. can be found in the footnotes.20The formula for GWAR is as follows:GWAR = .52 * (GOPP) * (pitcher’s GPCT – replacement-level GPCT)In the formula, GOPP is goose opportunities (goose eggs + broken eggs) and GPCT is goose percentage (goose eggs divided by goose opportunities).Replacement-level GPCT, which adjusts for park and league effects, is calculated as follows:Replacement-level GPCT = league GPCT + .105 – .0014 * PPF… where league GPCT is the leaguewide goose percentage (that is, for the American League or the National League, rather than for the major leagues combined) and PPF is the Baseball-Reference.com pitching park factor for the pitcher’s home stadium.The best relievers of all time, according to gooseEven with all this extra work, however, we come to basically the same conclusion that we did before: Most of the best relief seasons came a long time ago, and from pitchers who followed Gossage’s usage pattern rather than Rivera’s. 1970Lindy McDaniel702000Danny Graves51 TRADITIONAL STATSGOOSE STATS Jonathan Papelbon3615287.471.733.7 Trevor Hoffman58011383.771.643.7 1993Jeff Montgomery54788.569.56.0 Todd Worrell3508081.472.220.7 1955Ray Narleski44295.773.35.4 Hoyt Wilhelm64114681.473.831.3 1972Tug McGraw651996Roberto Hernandez47 2004Mariano Rivera47 Craig Kimbrel2273487.073.019.0 2004Mariano Rivera47492.271.85.4 1969Ron Perranoski791993John Wetteland56 1973-1992Balanced Era0.7976.3
Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppProvidenciales, TCI, January 10, 2017 – Detectives of the Royal Turks and Caicos Islands Police Force have charged and cautioned two males ages 22 and 23 years old with offences that occurred at the Morris Plaza parking lot on Monday 2nd January 2017.Around 3:15 am that date, police responded to the Cheshire Hall Medical Centre after a report was made that two males were at the hospital with gunshot wounds, stab wounds, and other minor injuries. The investigation revealed that a fight had broken out at the said parking lot causing the persons to receive the injuries. All victims were treated for non-life-threatening injuries and later released from the hospital.The 22-year-old male was charged with Common Assault and fighting in a public place, and the 23-year-old was charged with Wounding and fighting in a public place. Recommended for you #MagneticNewsMedia Related Items:#MagneticNewsMedia Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Nearly 30 Haitians caught following illegal landing in Nassau, says Defence Force TCI Premier blasts Opposition side for “slop” information, sets it straight in HOA (RTCIPF Press release) Bahamas Police Commissioner Greenslade gone to UK, appointed as High Commissioner